Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
