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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest shock.

However the current field is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners fading and recent also-rans ascending collectively. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still